Considering that key posts in the Biden Administration are being filled by former Obama officials, we can assume that the US/Mexico relationship will have a tone similar to that of the pre-Trump years.  In other words, less drama, fewer threats and more rhetoric about shared responsibility and cooperation.

Experts believe that there will be a large flow of Central American migrants to the Mexico/US border early in the Biden administration, possibly starting before he takes office. Decisions by the Trump administration to restrict political asylum and others related to Covid-19, have greatly limited the flow of migrants across the border.  Immigration and asylum advocates expect Biden to reverse many of Trump’s anti-immigration policies, but Biden is likely to proceed with caution. There is a fear that lifting restrictions will encourage migration. A migration crisis in his first 100 days could limit the political space for policy changes in other areas. No doubt, there will be continued US interest in Mexico’s southern border as a critical point for controlling north bound migration. US immigration policies will become less restrictive, but don’t expect it to happen fast. And then there is the Wall.  It will still be there but don’t expect it to get much bigger.

While much of the trade relationship will be business as usual, energy and labor will likely be points of contention. Changes in the Mexican energy sector challenge foreign direct investment. Labor interests in both countries want fair pay and protections.

The new administration will likely be more willing to address gun trafficking into Mexico, but the reality is that much of what needs to change requires legislation. If the Democrats control the Senate there is more likelihood of change in US gun law, although it is still a difficult domestic agenda.

While foreign policy is not a priority for the AMLO government, there will be a commonality of interests around economic development and security in Central America.  Biden was Obama’s point person on Central America. He knows the region well and will likely return to an approach that highlights economic development. This is something that the two countries could work on together.

One hurdle for the Mexican government is the perception that AMLO not only acquiesced to Trump’s bully tactics, but that the two made common cause. This was affirmed by AMLO’s refusal to recognize Biden in the weeks after the election, even after the winner was firmly established and the transition official began.  There is likely to be an underlying resentment/distrust on the part of US officials.

Counterdrug cooperation is a priority for every US government. This will continue but the recent arrest of General Salvador Cienfuegos, and his subsequent return to Mexico, expose tensions within the military and counterdrug relationship. It also demonstrates the weight of military and counter drug issues in bilateral relations.

Climate change will be on Biden’s agenda. There will be opportunities for collaboration here, but it is not clear how Mexico will respond. Climate initiatives that are seen as infringing upon Mexican sovereignty are doubtful. 

If the last four years of the Trump Administration have taught us anything, it is that the Mexico/US relationship can survive a lot! While there are political impediments to progress on critical issues, civil society in both countries will be needed to ensure forward movement. Here’s to hoping for more cooperation in the years ahead! 

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*The author is currently working as a consultant to NGOs and non-profits on advocacy strategy